316 Howard St · Bay City, MI 48708

$134,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1914 4,792 sqft lot $76/sqft · 52% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location is a Plus! The dead end makes it a quiet street. It is within walking distance to walk along the water to uptown and downtown Bay City. There is an alleyway driveway and parking on the street. Great View of the Bay City Fireworks in the summer! Large kitchen with an island bar & a dining room. Has a dry basement for lots of storage room. The first floor bedroom has a large closet and a room that could be used as an office, craft room, playroom or another bedroom. 2 bedrooms upstairs have large closets and a 1/2 bath. Fresh paint and flooring in some of the rooms.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1914
• Listed 71 days

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO WATER
• LARGE KITCHEN WITH ISLAND BAR
• DRY BASEMENT FOR STORAGE
• BEDROOMS WITH LARGE CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-644/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 395 students, 93% FRL); Handy Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #387 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 685 students, 79% FRL); Bay City Central High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 1,033 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 44% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $134k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,896 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,664
• List price: $134,500
• Delta: 51.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Stanton St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,756 (-0%)	3mo	$173,000	$99	68
421 Garfield Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (-4%)	15mo	$90,000	$53	67
1200 Fitzhugh St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,716 (-2%)	5mo	$47,500	$28	63
318 Fraser St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-14%)	0mo	$155,000	$103	60
234 N Jackson St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (-1%)	10mo	$100,000	$58	52
808 13th St	0.55mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,840 (+4%)	15mo	$82,000	$45	50
414 S Jackson St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,500 (-15%)	2mo	$109,900	$73	45
417 Marsac St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,546 (-12%)	15mo	$131,500	$85	40
1210 17th St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,944 (+10%)	16mo	$132,500	$68	38
711 S Farragut St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,680 (-4%)	23mo	$165,000	$98	37
1215 Lafayette Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (-14%)	16mo	$78,000	$52	32
720 S Henry St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-14%)	10mo	$30,000	$20	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-25,201
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-26,297
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,926/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $125,020

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-16	+0% $-54	+5% $-92	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-97	+0% $-54	+5% $-10	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-19	base $-54	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,625
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $134,500 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $134,500 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,500 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,500 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,500 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,500 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,500 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,500 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $134,500 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,500 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,500 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,500 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,500 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,500 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,500 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,500 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,500 Active 49 DOM
19. 2026-05-05
    price $134,500 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Location is a Plus! The dead end makes it a quiet street. It is within walking distance to walk along the water to uptown and downtown Bay City. There is an alleyway driveway and parking on the street. Great View of the Bay City Fireworks in the summer! Large kitchen with an island bar & a dining room. Has a dry basement for lots of storage room. The first floor bedroom has a large closet and a room that could be used as an office, craft room, playroom or another bedroom. 2 bedrooms upstairs have large closets and a 1/2 bath. Fresh paint and flooring in some of the rooms.

20. 2026-05-05
    price $134,500 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Location is a Plus! The dead end makes it a quiet street. It is within walking distance to walk along the water to uptown and downtown Bay City. There is an alleyway driveway and parking on the street. Great View of the Bay City Fireworks in the summer! Large kitchen with an island bar & a dining room. Has a dry basement for lots of storage room. The first floor bedroom has a large closet and a room that could be used as an office, craft room, playroom or another bedroom. 2 bedrooms upstairs have large closets and a 1/2 bath. Fresh paint and flooring in some of the rooms.

21. 2026-04-11
    listed $139,500 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Location is a Plus! The dead end makes it a quiet street. It is within walking distance to walk along the water to uptown and downtown Bay City. There is an alleyway driveway and parking on the street. Great View of the Bay City Fireworks in the summer! Large kitchen with an island bar & a dining room. Has a dry basement for lots of storage room. The first floor bedroom has a large closet and a room that could be used as an office, craft room, playroom or another bedroom. 2 bedrooms upstairs have large closets and a 1/2 bath. Fresh paint and flooring in some of the rooms.

22. 2026-04-11
    listed $139,500 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Location is a Plus! The dead end makes it a quiet street. It is within walking distance to walk along the water to uptown and downtown Bay City. There is an alleyway driveway and parking on the street. Great View of the Bay City Fireworks in the summer! Large kitchen with an island bar & a dining room. Has a dry basement for lots of storage room. The first floor bedroom has a large closet and a room that could be used as an office, craft room, playroom or another bedroom. 2 bedrooms upstairs have large closets and a 1/2 bath. Fresh paint and flooring in some of the rooms.

23. 2022-05-09
    soldstatus $55,000
24. 2022-05-05
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
25. 2022-04-24
    status Pending
26. 2022-04-18
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
27. 2022-03-05
    listed $69,700 Active
28. 2022-03-02
    historical
29. 2022-02-18
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
30. 2021-11-12
    listed $68,700 Active
31. 2019-12-05
    historical
32. 2019-07-15
    listed $39,900
33. 2015-10-27
    historical
34. 2015-08-07
    listed $34,900
35. 2010-12-16
    soldstatus $7,100
36. 2010-12-16
    soldstatus $7,100
37. 2010-12-01
    listed $6,000
38. 2010-12-01
    listed $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,926 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,998 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$1,926
• − Insurance: −$672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable loss: −$2,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$712
• After-tax cash flow: $68/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+2141.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $134,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $134,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-11 Listed $139,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-11 Listed $139,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-05 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-24 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-18 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-05 Listed $69,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-18 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-12 Listed $68,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-12-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-07-15 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-10-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-08-07 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-12-16 Sold (MLS) $7,100 REALCOMP
• 2010-12-16 Sold (MLS) $7,100 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-12-01 Listed $6,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-12-01 Listed $6,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,926 · -16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.