16 Bittersweet Dr

Robinwood, MD 21740

$175,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,540 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,895/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $308/mo
• Annual: $3,697/yr
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.55%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#322 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A-, housing B+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtion County Public Schools (suburban): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #13 of 24 in MD (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eastern Elementary (math 10% / reading 11%, grade F, #590 of 860 statewide, top 70%, 433 students, 85% FRL); E. Russell Hicks Middle (math 8% / reading 31%, grade F, #154 of 225 statewide, top 68%, 824 students, 74% FRL); South Hagerstown High (math 30% / reading 63%, grade D-, #118 of 222 statewide, top 54%, 1,487 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 368 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 232 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $118k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.8% in Robinwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.