The Ash M Plan

Josephine, TX 75173

$360,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,417 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 225 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,352/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax + insurance: −$698
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-1,037/mo
• Annual: $-12,445/yr
• Cap rate: 3.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.61%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $117,291

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $361k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (34.9% below list).
• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.