The Ash M Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$360,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,417 sqft · SingleFamily · 225 Days on market

↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Inside The Ash's handsome exterior lies a coveted, open floor plan. The Foyer welcomes guests past an elegant Dining Room and into a stunning Family Room. The rear Porch offers a calm respite, and the first floor Owner's Suite highlights a massive walk-in closet. On the second floor, the plan offers two additional bedrooms and a generous Bonus Room - perfect for game nights. Make it your own with The Ash's flexible floor plan, showcasing an optional fireplace, a fourth bedroom option and more! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Generous bonus room
• Flexible floor plan

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MASSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• REAR PORCH
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• FOURTH BEDROOM OPTION
• GENEROUS BONUS ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $360,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $418,896.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $361k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $235,167 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.61%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,896
• List price: $360,990
• Delta: -13.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Timber Ridge Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,350 (-3%)	3mo	$399,900	$170	77
314 Timber Ridge Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,630 (+9%)	3mo	$471,900	$179	67
306 Timber Ridge Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,160 (-11%)	3mo	$419,900	$194	64
1700 Rolling Meadow Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,105 (-13%)	4mo	$364,995	$173	57
1973 Creekview Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,591 (+7%)	3mo	$509,900	$197	53
2008 Meadowbrook Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	2,279 (-6%)	10mo	$474,990	$208	52
2078 Meadowbrook Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,590 (+7%)	6mo	$509,900	$197	50
2030 Creekview Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,590 (+7%)	2mo	$449,000	$173	48
300 Concord Ct	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,095 (-13%)	2mo	$297,990	$142	45
819 Lexington	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,095 (-13%)	10mo	$273,990	$131	37
2010 Creekview Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,054 (-15%)	11mo	$425,000	$207	28
2093 Creekview Ln	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,054 (-15%)	11mo	$435,000	$212	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $162,125
• Equity at exit: $377,374

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $529,446
• Equity at exit: $813,822

Cash invested: $117,291 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,352 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,283/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-1,037

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,664

Max offer price $268,829

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-748	-5% $-892	+0% $-1,037	+5% $-1,182	+10% $-1,327
Rent	-10% $-1,223	-5% $-1,130	+0% $-1,037	+5% $-944	+10% $-851
Rate	-1.0pp $-826	-0.5pp $-931	base $-1,037	+0.5pp $-1,146	+1.0pp $-1,256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,724
• Closing costs: $12,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	1.22mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	1.28mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	1.28mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	1.31mi
805 Concord Ct Nevada, TX	4.0	2.5	3027	$3,950	$1.30	45d	1	1.31mi
831 Lexington Ln Nevada, TX	4.0	2.5	2089	$2,095	$1.00	14d	1	1.44mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $360,990 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,990 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,990 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,990 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,990 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,990 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,990 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,990 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,990 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,990 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,990 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,990 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,990 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,990 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,990 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-03-28
    price $360,990 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Inside The Ash's handsome exterior lies a coveted, open floor plan. The Foyer welcomes guests past an elegant Dining Room and into a stunning Family Room. The rear Porch offers a calm respite, and the first floor Owner's Suite highlights a massive walk-in closet. On the second floor, the plan offers two additional bedrooms and a generous Bonus Room - perfect for game nights. Make it your own with The Ash's flexible floor plan, showcasing an optional fireplace, a fourth bedroom option and more! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

17. 2026-02-03
    price $355,990 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Inside The Ash's handsome exterior lies a coveted, open floor plan. The Foyer welcomes guests past an elegant Dining Room and into a stunning Family Room. The rear Porch offers a calm respite, and the first floor Owner's Suite highlights a massive walk-in closet. On the second floor, the plan offers two additional bedrooms and a generous Bonus Room - perfect for game nights. Make it your own with The Ash's flexible floor plan, showcasing an optional fireplace, a fourth bedroom option and more! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

18. 2026-01-26
    status Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Inside The Ash's handsome exterior lies a coveted, open floor plan. The Foyer welcomes guests past an elegant Dining Room and into a stunning Family Room. The rear Porch offers a calm respite, and the first floor Owner's Suite highlights a massive walk-in closet. On the second floor, the plan offers two additional bedrooms and a generous Bonus Room - perfect for game nights. Make it your own with The Ash's flexible floor plan, showcasing an optional fireplace, a fourth bedroom option and more! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

19. 2026-01-26
    price $369,990 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Inside The Ash's handsome exterior lies a coveted, open floor plan. The Foyer welcomes guests past an elegant Dining Room and into a stunning Family Room. The rear Porch offers a calm respite, and the first floor Owner's Suite highlights a massive walk-in closet. On the second floor, the plan offers two additional bedrooms and a generous Bonus Room - perfect for game nights. Make it your own with The Ash's flexible floor plan, showcasing an optional fireplace, a fourth bedroom option and more! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

20. 2025-12-09
    historical 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Inside The Ash's handsome exterior lies a coveted, open floor plan. The Foyer welcomes guests past an elegant Dining Room and into a stunning Family Room. The rear Porch offers a calm respite, and the first floor Owner's Suite highlights a massive walk-in closet. On the second floor, the plan offers two additional bedrooms and a generous Bonus Room - perfect for game nights. Make it your own with The Ash's flexible floor plan, showcasing an optional fireplace, a fourth bedroom option and more! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

21. 2025-09-23
    listed $379,990 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Inside The Ash's handsome exterior lies a coveted, open floor plan. The Foyer welcomes guests past an elegant Dining Room and into a stunning Family Room. The rear Porch offers a calm respite, and the first floor Owner's Suite highlights a massive walk-in closet. On the second floor, the plan offers two additional bedrooms and a generous Bonus Room - perfect for game nights. Make it your own with The Ash's flexible floor plan, showcasing an optional fireplace, a fourth bedroom option and more! Offerings vary by location, so please discuss your options with your community's agent. * Attached photos may include upgrades and non-standard features.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,465
• − Property taxes: −$6,283
• − Insurance: −$2,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,258
• − Management: −$2,258
• − Depreciation: −$12,186
• Taxable loss: −$20,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,878
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $360,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $355,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-23 Listed $379,990 Zillow