118 Overlook Dr

Aquebogue, NY 11931

$1,399,000B

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,865 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 414 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,337
• Tax + insurance: −$2,045
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $6,418/mo
• Annual: $77,020/yr
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.87%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $391,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($77k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.40M).
• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.23M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $150k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $140k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $1.40M implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$240k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.