118 Overlook Dr · Aquebogue, NY 11931

$1,399,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,865 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 414 Days on market

Built 1981 0.75 ac lot $750/sqft · 44% above area Est $969k · 44% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Waterfront House with Private Beach area, Light House, boat ramp, deep water boat docks, docks need some repairs, Set up as 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2 car garage, new kitchen with new applicances, 3 new bathrooms, new flooring on fist floor, double sided fireplace.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Waterfront house
• New bathrooms

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOUSE
• PRIVATE BEACH AREA
• BOAT RAMP
• DEEP WATER BOAT DOCKS
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.40M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($77k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.40M).
• Recommended offer: $1.23M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $150k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $140k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$240k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $1.40M implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,231,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.87%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $969,337
• List price: $1,399,000
• Delta: 44.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $1,170,847
• Equity at exit: $1,260,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.98×
• Total profit: $3,126,734
• Equity at exit: $2,717,949

Cash invested: $391,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,337
• Tax from tax record: −$1,396 /mo · $16,749/yr
• Insurance: −$583
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $6,418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,875

Max offer price $1,399,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,210	-5% $6,814	+0% $6,418	+5% $6,022	+10% $5,626
Rent	-10% $4,838	-5% $5,628	+0% $6,418	+5% $7,208	+10% $7,998
Rate	-1.0pp $7,123	-0.5pp $6,774	base $6,418	+0.5pp $6,056	+1.0pp $5,687

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $349,750
• Closing costs: $41,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
97 Grant DR Aquebogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1900	$20,000	$10.53	44d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 411 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 410 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 409 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 408 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 406 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 402 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 401 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 400 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 397 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 396 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 395 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 394 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 393 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Waterfront House with Private Beach area, Light House, boat ramp, deep water boat docks, docks need some repairs, Set up as 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2 car garage, new kitchen with new applicances, 3 new bathrooms, new flooring on fist floor, double sided fireplace.

16. 2026-05-03
    historical 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Waterfront House with Private Beach area, Light House, boat ramp, deep water boat docks, docks need some repairs, Set up as 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2 car garage, new kitchen with new applicances, 3 new bathrooms, new flooring on fist floor, double sided fireplace.

17. 2026-03-27
    price $1,399,000 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Waterfront House with Private Beach area, Light House, boat ramp, deep water boat docks, docks need some repairs, Set up as 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2 car garage, new kitchen with new applicances, 3 new bathrooms, new flooring on fist floor, double sided fireplace.

18. 2025-05-02
    listed $1,299,000 Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Waterfront House with Private Beach area, Light House, boat ramp, deep water boat docks, docks need some repairs, Set up as 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2 car garage, new kitchen with new applicances, 3 new bathrooms, new flooring on fist floor, double sided fireplace.

19. 2024-11-30
    historical
20. 2024-08-15
    listed $1,399,000 Active
21. 2000-12-20
    soldstatus $280,000
22. 2000-12-20
    soldstatus $280,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $16,749 · $1,396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,196 · $1,683/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,447/yr (+$287/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,366
• − Property taxes: −$16,749
• − Insurance: −$7,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$40,698
• Taxable income: $57,995
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,919
• After-tax cash flow: $63,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+399.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Listed $1,299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Listed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,749 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.