4868 Independence Dr

Cortez, FL 34210

$190,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 147 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,592/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$401
• HOA: −$767
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,399/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (10.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#486 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.1%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.8% in Cortez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,592/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 895% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?