4868 Independence Dr · Cortez, FL 34210

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · Condo public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1981 $767/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent New Price for this Waterview Lakehouse!! Enjoy effortless first-floor Florida living just miles from the sugar-sand beaches of Anna Maria Island in the highly sought-after, Bayfront Mount Vernon community. This first-floor residence provides easy single-level living and features tile flooring throughout with crown molding, creating a clean, cohesive look with timeless appeal. Both bathrooms have been tastefully remodeled with updated sinks, modern lighting, quartz countertops, new faucets, mirrors, shelving, and toilets, delivering a fresh, spa-like feel. The spacious great room is filled with natural light, offering peaceful lake views and a flexible layout ideal for both comfor

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Natural light
• First floor living

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LIVING
• TILE FLOORING
• CROWN MOLDING
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees $767; total annual fees $9,204; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $767 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, fidelity bond, internet, building and grounds maintenance, management, pest control, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water); Association approval required; Association recreation owned, clubhouse, fitness center, park, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport (1 space); Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Internet available
• Home design: Residential condominium; One-story; Faces west; On waterfront with lake view and saltwater canal access
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building number 4868
• Exterior features: Storage; Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (first floor)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Humidity control
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (10.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.8% in Cortez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#486 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.1%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,592/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 895% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-45,245
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-76,027
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34210

• Rents YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,061/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$767
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,739

Max offer price $169,411

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4813 Independence Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,695	$1.48	24d	1	0.03mi
4782 Independence Dr #4782 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	24d	1	0.07mi
4765 Independence Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,300	$3.19	24d	1	0.08mi
9819 Hernando Ct Unit 29-A Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$2,500	$2.32	24d	1	0.48mi
4607 103rd Street Ct W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	930	$2,100	$2.26	11d	1	0.63mi
8626 54th Ave W #29 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,400	$1.54	16d	1	0.64mi
4326 80th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,600	$1.02	2d	1	1.12mi
4325 80th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	24d	1	1.14mi
3426 79th Street Cir W #203 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1857	$5,100	$2.75	24d	1	1.30mi
3418 79th Street Cir W #302 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1657	$2,949	$1.78	16d	1	1.32mi
3412 79th Street Cir W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1854	$3,500	$1.89	24d	1	1.34mi
4005 78th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	3d	1	1.35mi
7930 34th Ave W #303 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1854	$4,000	$2.16	16d	1	1.38mi
7930 34th Ave W #102 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1657	$6,000	$3.62	24d	1	1.38mi
3450 77th St W #303 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1857	$5,400	$2.91	24d	1	1.43mi
7840 34th Ave W #102 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$2,800	$1.70	24d	1	1.44mi
7840 34th Ave W #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$3,000	$1.82	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $767 · $9,204/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $190,000
16. 2026-02-27
    price $230,000
17. 2026-01-22
    listed $255,000 Active
18. 2005-05-18
    soldstatus $230,000
19. 2001-12-05
    soldstatus $100,000
20. 1992-02-05
    soldstatus $68,500
21. 1980-06-01
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,061 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,061 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 92% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$3,061
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − HOA: −$9,204
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$4,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$974
• After-tax cash flow: $-425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cortez

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #486
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cortez, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 759
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,682
• Household income: $64,244
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 895.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.68%
• Current HPI: 246.9247
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.08%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+216.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1992-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 1980-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,061 · -12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.