2421 Trinidad Ln

Alton, TX 78573

$178,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,157/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-316/mo
• Annual: $-3,796/yr
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $49,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (35.0% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alton El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 390 students, 95% FRL); Mission H S (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,218 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.6% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.