2421 Trinidad Ln · Alton, TX 78573

$178,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 8,259 sqft lot $155/sqft · at area comps Est $186k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW Construction home!! this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering the perfect blend of comfort, space, and everyday convenience. Sitting on a generous 0.18 acre lot outside city limits. The home features a bright, open layout that flows effortlessly, making great for a growing family. This is a quality built home ready for you to move in!! Located just minutes from schools, shopping, and dining, this home is just perfect for you!

Key facts

• 8,259 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Zapphire Real Estate Group
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Community features: Other

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City sewer
• Home design: Seller-measured living area
• Construction: Siding exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Covered patio; Patio; Paved road access; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: No conveying appliances (kitchen appliances not included)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Laminate; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Quartz countertops; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Double-pane energy-efficient windows; Window coverings (other); No window coverings in some windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer/dryer connection; Electric water heater; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.6% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Alton El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 390 students, 95% FRL); Mission H S (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,218 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,666 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,434
• List price: $178,000
• Delta: -4.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2207 109th St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	17mo	$189,900	$170	72
7734 Teo Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	6mo	$189,000	$158	59
2903 N CR 110 St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	15mo	$165,000	$164	44
604 W Stevenson Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+14%)	13mo	$229,000	$175	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $76,175
• Equity at exit: $160,357

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $238,941
• Equity at exit: $345,815

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$222 /mo · $2,670/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $132,223

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-193	-5% $-255	+0% $-316	+5% $-378	+10% $-439
Rent	-10% $-408	-5% $-362	+0% $-316	+5% $-271	+10% $-225
Rate	-1.0pp $-227	-0.5pp $-271	base $-316	+0.5pp $-362	+1.0pp $-409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 W Sunset Valley St Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	24d	1	0.63mi
1001 W Sunset Valley St Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	44d	1	0.63mi
1001 N Maryland St Apt 1 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,075	$0.98	15d	1	0.63mi
1000 Kentucky St Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,075	$1.16	44d	1	0.64mi
1001 W Sunset Valley St Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	44d	1	0.64mi
913 W Sunset Valley St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	44d	1	0.64mi
805 W Sunset Valley St Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,050	$1.13	24d	1	0.65mi
912 Kentucky St #3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	15d	1	0.66mi
908 Kentucky St Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,075	$1.16	24d	1	0.68mi
1005 W La Pointe Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	44d	1	0.69mi
1005 W La Pointe Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	24d	1	0.69mi
904 W Mahala Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$925	$1.03	24d	1	0.75mi
805 N Maryland St Unit 3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$1,115	$1.25	22d	1	0.76mi
908 W Kohala Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	15d	1	0.79mi
713 N Maryland St Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	24d	1	0.80mi
909 W Kohala Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	15d	1	0.81mi
1413 N Inspiration Blvd Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$950	$0.90	24d	1	0.93mi
1413 N Inspiration Blvd Unit 200 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.93mi
308 W Campeche Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	916	$1,000	$1.09	44d	1	1.01mi
312 W Campeche Ave Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,165	$1.17	24d	1	1.01mi
312 W Campeche Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,065	$1.06	24d	1	1.01mi
307 W Campeche Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,100	$1.12	24d	1	1.05mi
307 W Campeche Ave Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,300	$1.13	24d	1	1.05mi
120 W Diamond Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$1,100	$1.15	24d	1	1.08mi
308 W Campeche Ave Unit 2 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,165	$0.98	44d	1	1.08mi
116 W Campeche Ave Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,200	$1.02	44d	1	1.14mi
116 W Campeche Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $178,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $178,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $178,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $182,500 Active 449-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$2,670
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,110
• − Management: −$1,110
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$7,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,692
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1230
• US rank: #21479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alton, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 44,809
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $178,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $182,500 MCALLENMLS