1114 Willow Dr

Clearfield, PA 16830

$49,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Pending · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $498/mo
• Annual: $5,973/yr
• Cap rate: 19.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.39%
• DSCR: 3.15
• 1% rule: 2.21%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,186 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clearfield Area SD (town): math 21% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #441 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clearfield Area El Sch (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,125 of 1,518 statewide, top 75%, 1,059 students, 100% FRL); Clearfield Area Jshs (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #339 of 437 statewide, top 78%, 1,017 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Clearfield County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clearfield County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.