1114 Willow Dr · Lawrence, PA 16830

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Other · 86 Days on market

Built 1999 $47/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

True one‑level living awaits in the quiet & friendly Lynn Wood Hills Mobile Home Park. This peaceful community sits just minutes from town conveniences & only 1.3 miles from the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, an ideal spot for fishing, kayaking, or simply enjoying the view. It’s a serene bonus that adds to the charm of this welcoming neighborhood. Whether you're looking to downsize or purchase your first home, this property offers an affordable opportunity with plenty of potential to make it your own. Exterior highlights include off‑street parking, a covered patio perfect for morning coffee & a manageable lot that balances privacy with accessibility. Inside, you’ll appreciate the vaulted ceilings & sun‑filled open concept layout. The spacious living room provides a comfortable gathering space, while the light & bright kitchen features a cheerful dining area, included appliances, ample cabinetry & generous countertop space for meal prep. A convenient laundry room with an included washer & dryer adds everyday ease. The primary bedroom offers a private full bathroom complete with a corner soaking tub & separate shower. Down the hall, you’ll find two additional bedrooms & another full bathroom, providing flexible space for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Additional amenities include propane forced air heat & a new metal roof (2023). Lot rent is $260/month and includes exterior maintenance, road upkeep & snow removal on public roads. All buyers must be approved by Lynn Wood Hills Park Management. Schedule your private showing today & discover the comfort, convenience & value this home has to offer.

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Manageable lot
• Covered patio

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OFF STREET PARKING
• COVERED PATIO
• MANAGEABLE LOT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $49,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$103,782) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 4.3% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,164 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clearfield Area SD (town): math 21% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #441 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clearfield Area El Sch (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,125 of 1,518 statewide, top 75%, 1,059 students, 100% FRL); Clearfield Area Jshs (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #339 of 437 statewide, top 78%, 1,017 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 47% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Clearfield County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clearfield County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.39%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,782
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -52.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $23,788
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $61,645
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16830

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $276/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $450

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $512	+0% $498	+5% $484	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $455	+0% $498	+5% $540	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $510	base $498	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $49,000 Pending 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-04-13
   price $49,000 1726-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1726 chars)

   True one‑level living awaits in the quiet & friendly Lynn Wood Hills Mobile Home Park. This peaceful community sits just minutes from town conveniences & only 1.3 miles from the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, an ideal spot for fishing, kayaking, or simply enjoying the view. It’s a serene bonus that adds to the charm of this welcoming neighborhood. Whether you're looking to downsize or purchase your first home, this property offers an affordable opportunity with plenty of potential to make it your own. Exterior highlights include off‑street parking, a covered patio perfect for morning coffee & a manageable lot that balances privacy with accessibility. Inside, you’ll appreciate the vaulted ceilings & sun‑filled open concept layout. The spacious living room provides a comfortable gathering space, while the light & bright kitchen features a cheerful dining area, included appliances, ample cabinetry & generous countertop space for meal prep. A convenient laundry room with an included washer & dryer adds everyday ease. The primary bedroom offers a private full bathroom complete with a corner soaking tub & separate shower. Down the hall, you’ll find two additional bedrooms & another full bathroom, providing flexible space for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Additional amenities include propane forced air heat & a new metal roof (2023). Lot rent is $260/month and includes exterior maintenance, road upkeep & snow removal on public roads. All buyers must be approved by Lynn Wood Hills Park Management. Schedule your private showing today & discover the comfort, convenience & value this home has to offer.

8. 2026-03-11
   listed $55,000 Active 1726-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1726 chars)

   True one‑level living awaits in the quiet & friendly Lynn Wood Hills Mobile Home Park. This peaceful community sits just minutes from town conveniences & only 1.3 miles from the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, an ideal spot for fishing, kayaking, or simply enjoying the view. It’s a serene bonus that adds to the charm of this welcoming neighborhood. Whether you're looking to downsize or purchase your first home, this property offers an affordable opportunity with plenty of potential to make it your own. Exterior highlights include off‑street parking, a covered patio perfect for morning coffee & a manageable lot that balances privacy with accessibility. Inside, you’ll appreciate the vaulted ceilings & sun‑filled open concept layout. The spacious living room provides a comfortable gathering space, while the light & bright kitchen features a cheerful dining area, included appliances, ample cabinetry & generous countertop space for meal prep. A convenient laundry room with an included washer & dryer adds everyday ease. The primary bedroom offers a private full bathroom complete with a corner soaking tub & separate shower. Down the hall, you’ll find two additional bedrooms & another full bathroom, providing flexible space for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Additional amenities include propane forced air heat & a new metal roof (2023). Lot rent is $260/month and includes exterior maintenance, road upkeep & snow removal on public roads. All buyers must be approved by Lynn Wood Hills Park Management. Schedule your private showing today & discover the comfort, convenience & value this home has to offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $276 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $525 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 90.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$276
• − Insurance: −$912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $5,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,328
• After-tax cash flow: $4,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clearfield Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4206150
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,382
• Composite: 25.94/100
• National rank: #7334
• State rank: #441 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lawrence

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1164
• US rank: #13465

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,205
• Population (ZIP): 13,698

Population outlook (Clearfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,658 people
• By 2030: 78,358 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 74,670 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 70,186 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 60,391 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 46,886 · -41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clearfield

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.5) · D 23.9% · R 75.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.1pp · 2024: -51.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.5 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.22%
• Current HPI: 238.3156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $276 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.