202 Miller St

Smithville, TX 78957

$145,600D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,520/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$764
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-783/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $40,768

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-783/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (7.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smithville El (math 49% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 702 students, 55% FRL); Smithville J H (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 412 students, 51% FRL); Smithville H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 575 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.0% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.