202 Miller St · Smithville, TX 78957

$145,600

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1981 0.39 ac lot Est $258k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Small-town cool with real Texas character—this 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home in Smithville brings a practical layout with room to refresh, personalize, or hold as a long-term opportunity. Located near historic Downtown Smithville, local shops, cafés, Railroad Park, Riverbend Park along the Colorado River, and nearby Buescher State Park, this spot keeps everyday stops and outdoor escapes within easy reach. A solid Smithville find with charm, location, and potential in one package.

Key facts

• Buescher state park
• Railroad park
• Riverbend park

Tags

• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN SMITHVILLE
• LOCAL SHOPS
• RAILROAD PARK
• RIVERBEND PARK
• BUESCHER STATE PARK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living areas); Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 1981; Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence (back yard); Porch; Patio; Private yard; Corner lot; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen (approx. 10 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 16); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling (gas)
• Interior features: Tub/shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-484/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (4.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Smithville El (math 49% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 702 students, 55% FRL); Smithville J H (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 412 students, 51% FRL); Smithville H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 575 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,470 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,048
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 NE 2nd St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,252 (+9%)	10mo	$285,000	$228	60
608 Wilkes St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (-5%)	2mo	$245,000	$224	60
202 Marburger St	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,038 (-10%)	9mo	$159,000	$153	59
305 Byrne St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,064 (-8%)	14mo	$275,000	$258	57
304 Mills St	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,199 (+4%)	18mo	$149,900	$125	51
406 San Jacinto St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+9%)	5mo	$259,000	$206	47
406 Ross St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (+14%)	7mo	$289,999	$221	44
201 Short St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+9%)	20mo	$329,500	$263	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-25,981
• Equity at exit: $21,709

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,190
• Equity at exit: $12,589

Cash invested: $40,768 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78957

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$764
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,507/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $138,470

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $1	+0% $-40	+5% $-82	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-102	+0% $-40	+5% $21	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-3	base $-40	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,400
• Closing costs: $4,368
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Anderson St Unit A Smithville, TX	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,460	$1.20	18d	1	0.30mi
403 Taylor St Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	21d	1	0.44mi
801 Bishop St Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	44d	1	0.66mi
801 Bishop St Smithville, TX	1.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	20d	1	0.66mi
505 Colorado St Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,990	$1.79	8d	1	0.89mi
809 Burleson St Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	1074	$1,350	$1.26	44d	1	0.91mi
205 2nd Ave Apt 2 Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,175	$1.40	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,600 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,600 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,600 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $145,600 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,600 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,600 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,600 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,600 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-19
   listed $145,600 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,507 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,507 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,156
• − Property taxes: −$4,507
• − Insurance: −$1,526
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$4,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,794
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4776
• State rank: #333 of 826 in TX

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #11003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,282

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 275.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $145,600 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,507 · +26.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.