10 Jeffrey Ln

East Quogue, NY 11942

$2,495,000B

6 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,323 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $38,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax + insurance: −$2,355
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,087
• Net cashflow: $14,985/mo
• Annual: $179,824/yr
• Cap rate: 13.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.84%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $698,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($180k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($39k rent vs $2.50M).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.46M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.46M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 78% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.25M; list at $2.50M implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $699k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.