10 Jeffrey Ln · East Quogue, NY 11942

$2,495,000

6 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1992 2.07 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away at the end of the block, a sweeping circular driveway welcomes you to this ultra-private, 2.1-acre sanctuary. Designed with entertainment in mind, the open-concept first floor comprises the living room, dining area, and chef’s kitchen—features walls of glass that slide open to an expansive deck. Outside, your personal resort awaits: an expansive deck, a heated 20x40 pool, a hot tub, and a no-maintenance, all-weather tennis court nestled within park-like grounds. The first floor offers four junior suites and a versatile guest wing with a private entrance and additional bedroom. The entire second floor is dedicated to the primary suite, featuring a private balcony with commanding views of your estate. Complete with a massive 2,700 sq. ft. basement containing multiple areas.

Key facts

• 2.07 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached private garage (1 space); No carport
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Propane; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Cedar exterior; Built/updated (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Balcony; Tennis court(s); Private in-ground pool; Back yard; Corner lot; Partially wooded; Private and secluded setting; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with granite counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Six full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Full basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning; Fireplace (1)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom; Skylights; Deck and patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($180k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($39k rent vs $2.50M).
• Recommended offer: $2.46M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $699k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.46M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 78% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.25M; list at $2.50M implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,457,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.84%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,249,448
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Jeffrey Ln	0.00mi	6/6.5	3,323 (0%)	2mo	$1,250,000	$376	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $549,599
• Equity at exit: $372,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $1,705,412
• Equity at exit: $215,722

Cash invested: $698,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $38,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax from tax record: −$1,260 /mo · $15,118/yr
• Insurance: −$1,040
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,087
• Net cashflow: $14,985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $19,543

Max offer price $2,495,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16,398	-5% $15,692	+0% $14,985	+5% $14,279	+10% $13,573
Rent	-10% $11,943	-5% $13,464	+0% $14,985	+5% $16,507	+10% $18,028
Rate	-1.0pp $16,242	-0.5pp $15,620	base $14,985	+0.5pp $14,339	+1.0pp $13,681

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $623,750
• Closing costs: $74,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Fox Hollow Dr East Quogue, NY	6.0	5.0	3375	$27,500	$8.15	8d	1	1.15mi
99 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3512	$95,000	$27.05	25d	1	1.26mi
3 Cherry Blossom Ln East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3632	$40,000	$11.01	44d	1	1.33mi
3 Rosebud Ln East Quogue, NY	6.0	7.5	4500	$55,000	$12.22	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    statusdays on market $2,495,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,495,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,495,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,495,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,495,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    historical $2,495,000
16. 2026-04-16
    soldstatus $1,250,000 Closed 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of the block, a sweeping circular driveway welcomes you to this ultra-private, 2.1-acre sanctuary. Designed with entertainment in mind, the open-concept first floor comprises the living room, dining area, and chef’s kitchen—features walls of glass that slide open to an expansive deck. Outside, your personal resort awaits: an expansive deck, a heated 20x40 pool, a hot tub, and a no-maintenance, all-weather tennis court nestled within park-like grounds. The first floor offers four junior suites and a versatile guest wing with a private entrance and additional bedroom. The entire second floor is dedicated to the primary suite, featuring a private balcony with commanding views of your estate. Complete with a massive 2,700 sq. ft. basement containing multiple areas.

17. 2026-03-08
    status Pending 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of the block, a sweeping circular driveway welcomes you to this ultra-private, 2.1-acre sanctuary. Designed with entertainment in mind, the open-concept first floor comprises the living room, dining area, and chef’s kitchen—features walls of glass that slide open to an expansive deck. Outside, your personal resort awaits: an expansive deck, a heated 20x40 pool, a hot tub, and a no-maintenance, all-weather tennis court nestled within park-like grounds. The first floor offers four junior suites and a versatile guest wing with a private entrance and additional bedroom. The entire second floor is dedicated to the primary suite, featuring a private balcony with commanding views of your estate. Complete with a massive 2,700 sq. ft. basement containing multiple areas.

18. 2026-02-02
    listed $1,399,000 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Tucked away at the end of the block, a sweeping circular driveway welcomes you to this ultra-private, 2.1-acre sanctuary. Designed with entertainment in mind, the open-concept first floor comprises the living room, dining area, and chef’s kitchen—features walls of glass that slide open to an expansive deck. Outside, your personal resort awaits: an expansive deck, a heated 20x40 pool, a hot tub, and a no-maintenance, all-weather tennis court nestled within park-like grounds. The first floor offers four junior suites and a versatile guest wing with a private entrance and additional bedroom. The entire second floor is dedicated to the primary suite, featuring a private balcony with commanding views of your estate. Complete with a massive 2,700 sq. ft. basement containing multiple areas.

19. 2020-05-22
    historical
20. 2019-06-06
    status Listing Extended
21. 2019-06-06
    historical
22. 2019-03-11
    price $1,195,000
23. 2018-12-06
    listed $1,299,000 New
24. 2018-07-01
    historical
25. 2018-01-12
    listed $1,295,000 New
26. 2018-01-02
    historical
27. 2017-10-13
    listed $1,295,000 New
28. 2017-10-13
    historical
29. 2017-07-25
    price $1,295,000
30. 2017-04-29
    listed $1,399,000 New
31. 2017-04-18
    historical
32. 2016-10-15
    listed $1,399,000 New
33. 2016-07-18
    historical
34. 2016-05-20
    listed $1,499,000 New
35. 2014-11-12
    historical
36. 2014-05-21
    listed $1,195,000
37. 1999-05-21
    soldstatus $485,000
38. 1988-05-24
    soldstatus $1,330,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,118 · $1,260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $28,642 · $2,387/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,524/yr (+$1,127/mo · 89.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $462,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,759
• − Property taxes: −$15,118
• − Insurance: −$13,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$36,971
• − Management: −$36,971
• − Depreciation: −$72,582
• Taxable income: $147,599
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35,424
• After-tax cash flow: $144,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+87.6% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Coming Soon $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Sold (MLS) $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-11 Price Changed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-06 Listed $1,299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-12 Listed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-13 Listed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-25 Price Changed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-29 Listed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-15 Listed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-20 Listed $1,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-21 Listed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $485,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,330,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $15,118 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.