11 Lyman Todd Dr

Fleischmanns, NY 12406

$384,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,014
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $1,587/mo
• Annual: $19,044/yr
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.71%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $107,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $384k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $361k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#834 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Margaretville Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #734 of 755 in NY (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $108k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.