11 Lyman Todd Dr · Fleischmanns, NY 12406

$384,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2000 4.50 ac lot $274/sqft · at area comps Est $366k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Drive just minutes past Belleayre Ski Resort and continue up the scenic Galli Curci Mt Road to discover this perfectly maintained 3BR, 2Bath, 1404 sq ft Abode nestled on 4.5 wooded and open serene acres on the side of a private mountain. Features include an open living plan, vaulted ceilings, All SS appliances in kitchen with breakfast counter and eat in nook. Full laundry Room. Hot air furnace propane fed. Newer large light filled windows, slate walls, beautiful flooring throughout, a wood burning fireplace in LR and a ''VIGILANT ''wood stove in the Dining Area, new skylights, new designer main bath with soaking tub and shower, new 200 AMP electric panel, rocking chair covered screened in porch and an open sun filled side deck, a gardeners shed and an observation deck placed amongst beautiful perennial plantings. Bedrooms all have 1-2 closets. This manufactured home was built in 2000 and placed on the solid block foundation over a poured cement slab with a crawl space for under house access and storage. All new modern high-quality furniture could be sold as well. A super clean turnkey house. Minutes to Belleayre Ski center, Pine Hill Lake, Arkville Indoor Rec center for swimming and exercise. Fleischmanns for food and fun, Margaretville for hospitals, services and shopping and education. Pack your bags!

Key facts

• Open living plan
• Observation deck
• Gardeners shed

Tags

• OPEN LIVING PLAN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• OBSERVATION DECK
• GARDENERS SHED
• NEW DESIGNER MAIN BATH
• NEW SKYLIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $384k).
• Recommended offer: $361k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#834 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Margaretville Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #734 of 755 in NY (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $108k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $360,960 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.71%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,181
• List price: $384,000
• Delta: 4.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $99,266
• Equity at exit: $121,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $277,558
• Equity at exit: $154,561

Cash invested: $107,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12406

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,014
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,271/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $1,587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,991

Max offer price $384,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,000
• Closing costs: $11,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Rider Hollow Rd Arkville, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$5,000	$3.85	43d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $384,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $385,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $385,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $385,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $385,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-04-12
    listed $395,000 Active 1325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1325 chars)

    Drive just minutes past Belleayre Ski Resort and continue up the scenic Galli Curci Mt Road to discover this perfectly maintained 3BR, 2Bath, 1404 sq ft Abode nestled on 4.5 wooded and open serene acres on the side of a private mountain. Features include an open living plan, vaulted ceilings, All SS appliances in kitchen with breakfast counter and eat in nook. Full laundry Room. Hot air furnace propane fed. Newer large light filled windows, slate walls, beautiful flooring throughout, a wood burning fireplace in LR and a ''VIGILANT ''wood stove in the Dining Area, new skylights, new designer main bath with soaking tub and shower, new 200 AMP electric panel, rocking chair covered screened in porch and an open sun filled side deck, a gardeners shed and an observation deck placed amongst beautiful perennial plantings. Bedrooms all have 1-2 closets. This manufactured home was built in 2000 and placed on the solid block foundation over a poured cement slab with a crawl space for under house access and storage. All new modern high-quality furniture could be sold as well. A super clean turnkey house. Minutes to Belleayre Ski center, Pine Hill Lake, Arkville Indoor Rec center for swimming and exercise. Fleischmanns for food and fun, Margaretville for hospitals, services and shopping and education. Pack your bags!

16. 2025-11-18
    status Pending
17. 2025-10-25
    price $399,000
18. 2025-09-30
    price $410,000
19. 2025-09-25
    price $425,000
20. 2025-09-04
    status Active
21. 2025-09-04
    price $460,000
22. 2025-06-01
    listed $479,900 Active
23. 2023-07-25
    soldstatus $300,000
24. 2023-06-14
    soldstatus $300,000 Closed
25. 2023-04-28
    status Pending
26. 2023-04-07
    listed $275,000 Active
27. 2023-04-06
    listed $275,000
28. 2023-04-03
    historical $275,000
29. 2019-05-15
    soldstatus $78,700
30. 2019-05-09
    soldstatus $78,700
31. 2019-03-20
    listed $85,000
32. 2017-05-03
    historical
33. 2017-02-28
    listed $80,408
34. 2016-12-14
    listed $72,367

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,271 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,380 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,109/yr (+$176/mo · 92.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,510
• − Property taxes: −$2,271
• − Insurance: −$1,920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$11,171
• Taxable income: $13,528
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,247
• After-tax cash flow: $15,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Margaretville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618510
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,369
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #12675
• State rank: #734 of 755 in NY

Livability — Fleischmanns

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #834
• US rank: #16163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 609

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 37% Native American 37%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Current HPI: 322.7938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+445.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $395,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-18 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $399,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $410,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $425,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $460,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listed $479,900 HVCRMLS
• 2023-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-14 Sold (MLS) $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-07 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-06 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-03 Coming Soon $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $78,700 Public Records
• 2019-05-09 Sold (MLS) $78,700 HVCRMLS
• 2019-03-20 Listed $85,000 HVCRMLS
• 2017-05-03 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2017-02-28 Listed $80,408 HVCRMLS
• 2016-12-14 Listed $72,367 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,271 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.