1704 Valley Forge Way

Louisville, KY 40215

$337,500B-

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,430 sqft · Built 1965 · MultiFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,360/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,770
• Tax + insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$916
• Net cashflow: $1,226/mo
• Annual: $14,715/yr
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.57%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $94,500

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $338k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive. Per door: $307/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $338k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $327k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $293k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $94k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,360/mo this rent would consume 120% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 997% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.