4343 Sage Rd

Warsaw, NY 14569

$214,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,514/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-891/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-891/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in NY, #4,662 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wyoming Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #623 of 755 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.