4343 Sage Rd · Warsaw, NY 14569

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1870 0.88 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on . 88 acres in a quiet Wyoming County setting, 4343 Sage Rd offers the space and charm of country living with several important updates already completed. This 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home features over 2,300 square feet of living space, including a spacious living room with brand new carpet, a practical mudroom with first floor laundry, and a covered side porch perfect for enjoying the outdoors. The property also includes a 1-car garage with a brand new roof, while the home itself features a roof that is only 2 years old. With generous living space inside and plenty of room outside, this property offers comfort, functionality, and the opportunity to make it your own. Square footage on

Key facts

• Practical mudroom
• Brand new roof
• 1-car garage

Tags

• IMPORTANT UPDATES
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• PRACTICAL MUDROOM
• COVERED SIDE PORCH
• 1-CAR GARAGE
• BRAND NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; High-speed internet available; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Metal roof; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch and deck; Deck; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); Secluded, rectangular/agricultural lot (approximately 0.88 acres, 200 x 186)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7; Laundry room included
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air heat
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Combined living/dining room; Primary bedroom with bath
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with accessible utilities; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-891/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in NY, #4,662 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wyoming Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #623 of 755 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $151,354 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $135
• Equity at exit: $74,382

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $35,119
• Equity at exit: $99,639

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14569

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $642/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,608

Max offer price $201,776

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $214,900 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $214,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $214,900 Active
16. 2018-02-12
    historical
17. 2017-10-25
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $642 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,137 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,495/yr (+$125/mo · 232.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$642
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$4,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,140
• After-tax cash flow: $248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wyoming Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631860
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 37.71/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #623 of 755 in NY

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,372

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Current HPI: 263.9109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+438.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $214,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-02-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-10-25 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

-13.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $642 · -63.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.