8502 Falling Blue Pl

Progress Village, FL 33578

$260,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · Built 2020 · Townhouse · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,385/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$184
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-112/mo
• Annual: $-1,339/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (8.3% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#298 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ippolito Elementary School (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 553 students, 70% FRL); Giunta Middle School (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 857 students, 74% FRL); Spoto High School (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 1,823 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.