8502 Falling Blue Pl · Progress Village, FL 33578

$260,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · Townhouse public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2020 1,186 sqft lot $184/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful townhome features a well-designed layout that highlights the home's spacious feel and modern features. The first floor is perfect for entertaining family and friends with a beautiful open-layout connecting the dining area, kitchen, and huge living room with sliding glass doors leading to an enormous patio. The kitchen features upgraded stainless steel appliances, a large granite island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, plenty of counters and cabinet space, plus a walk-in pantry tucked underneath the stairs. There is even a considerable sized half bathroom downstairs making it easy and convenient for having company. Upstairs there is a bright, large loft you can use as an office or an additional living room! There is a large master bedroom with a walk-in closet, an additional closet for extra storage, double vanity, and walk-in shower. Two Jack and Jill bedrooms upstairs share a second bathroom making it accommodating for all. This corner townhome features an oversized driveway with plenty of parking room. LOW HOA fees includes water, landscaping, gated entrance, and building maintenance. GREAT LOCATION Centrally located in Riverview this townhome is close to fine dining, shopping, entertainment, recreation, Interstate 75, US 301 only 15 minutes from downtown Tampa and much more.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Gourmet kitchen
• Granite island

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• CORNER LOT
• MAINTENANCE-FREE LIVING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#298 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ippolito Elementary School (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 553 students, 70% FRL); Giunta Middle School (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 857 students, 74% FRL); Spoto High School (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 1,823 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,462 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-56,069
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-84,341
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33578

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,385 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,076/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$184
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,526

Max offer price $240,287

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-38	+0% $-112	+5% $-185	+10% $-259
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-206	+0% $-112	+5% $-17	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-45	base $-112	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6768 Breezy Palm Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1298	$1,800	$1.39	22d	1	0.20mi
6714 Breezy Palm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1609	$2,200	$1.37	6d	1	0.21mi
9120 Moonlit Meadows Loop Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1260	$1,850	$1.47	26d	1	0.23mi
8969 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$2,200	$1.29	26d	1	0.24mi
8959 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	26d	1	0.26mi
8868 Indigo Trail Loop Unit 8868 Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$2,300	$1.35	5d	1	0.30mi
8933 Indigo Trail Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$2,295	$1.29	18d	1	0.30mi
6705 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$2,150	$1.51	16d	1	0.35mi
6614 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1540	$2,350	$1.53	26d	1	0.36mi
7514 Forest Mere Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$4,000	$2.33	26d	1	0.39mi
6959 Towne Lake Rd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,050	$1.46	0d	1	0.39mi
7007 Towne Lake Rd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,800	$2.71	26d	1	0.42mi
6824 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,095	$1.50	1d	1	0.47mi
8220 Midnight Sun Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,900	$1.49	26d	1	0.50mi
7012 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	26d	1	0.58mi
6978 Holly Heath Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,100	$1.50	26d	1	0.59mi
6402 Yellow Buckeye Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,950	$1.34	26d	1	0.74mi
8530 Quarter Horse Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,000	$1.56	26d	1	0.75mi
8530 Quarter Horse Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,000	$1.56	12d	1	0.75mi
8317 Moccasin Trail Dr Unit 1227829P Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$4,525	$2.88	18d	1	0.75mi
6118 Magnolia Park Blvd Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,600	$1.68	26d	1	0.75mi
7014 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1374	$2,090	$1.52	26d	1	0.77mi
7209 Colonial Lake Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2280	$3,100	$1.36	26d	1	0.77mi
7046 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,000	$1.43	19d	1	0.78mi
7113 Grand Elm Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,900	$1.36	12d	1	0.82mi
7102 Summer Holly Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1576	$2,100	$1.33	26d	1	0.84mi
5940 Sweet Birch Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,300	$1.48	1d	1	0.88mi
9736 Carlsdale Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1575	$1,850	$1.17	16d	1	0.90mi
6101 Innovation Way Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$2,250	$2.07	6d	12	0.92mi
8549 Deer Chase Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,300	$1.44	18d	1	1.05mi
8683 Holly Grove Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,514	$1.65	1d	5	1.07mi
9104 Canopy Oak Ln Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,086	$2.03	0d	18	1.12mi
5906 S 81st St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,999	$1.87	26d	1	1.20mi
6216 Gondola Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,430	$1.30	26d	1	1.20mi
10124 Cannon Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,450	$1.36	26d	1	1.21mi
9246 Headwaters Ave Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1014	$2,727	$2.69	0d	28	1.22mi
9707 Tranquility Lake Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,138	$2.27	0d	37	1.24mi
9303 Cobalt Dr Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,510	$2.31	1d	47	1.27mi
5501 Legacy Crescent Pl Riverview, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$1,797	$1.79	1d	9	1.36mi
5905 Trace Meadow Loop Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,582	$2.51	1d	14	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $184 · $2,208/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $260,000
3. 2026-03-16
   listed $280,000 Active
4. 2025-10-30
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-29
   historical
6. 2025-10-25
   status Active
7. 2025-10-25
   status Pending
8. 2025-10-13
   price $317,000
9. 2025-09-15
   price $320,000
10. 2025-08-07
    listed $325,000 Active
11. 2021-11-12
    soldstatus $290,000 Closed 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    This beautiful townhome features a well-designed layout that highlights the home's spacious feel and modern features. The first floor is perfect for entertaining family and friends with a beautiful open-layout connecting the dining area, kitchen, and huge living room with sliding glass doors leading to an enormous patio. The kitchen features upgraded stainless steel appliances, a large granite island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, plenty of counters and cabinet space, plus a walk-in pantry tucked underneath the stairs. There is even a considerable sized half bathroom downstairs making it easy and convenient for having company. Upstairs there is a bright, large loft you can use as an office or an additional living room! There is a large master bedroom with a walk-in closet, an additional closet for extra storage, double vanity, and walk-in shower. Two Jack and Jill bedrooms upstairs share a second bathroom making it accommodating for all. This corner townhome features an oversized driveway with plenty of parking room. LOW HOA fees includes water, landscaping, gated entrance, and building maintenance. GREAT LOCATION Centrally located in Riverview this townhome is close to fine dining, shopping, entertainment, recreation, Interstate 75, US 301 only 15 minutes from downtown Tampa and much more.

12. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $290,000
13. 2021-10-07
    status Pending 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    This beautiful townhome features a well-designed layout that highlights the home's spacious feel and modern features. The first floor is perfect for entertaining family and friends with a beautiful open-layout connecting the dining area, kitchen, and huge living room with sliding glass doors leading to an enormous patio. The kitchen features upgraded stainless steel appliances, a large granite island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, plenty of counters and cabinet space, plus a walk-in pantry tucked underneath the stairs. There is even a considerable sized half bathroom downstairs making it easy and convenient for having company. Upstairs there is a bright, large loft you can use as an office or an additional living room! There is a large master bedroom with a walk-in closet, an additional closet for extra storage, double vanity, and walk-in shower. Two Jack and Jill bedrooms upstairs share a second bathroom making it accommodating for all. This corner townhome features an oversized driveway with plenty of parking room. LOW HOA fees includes water, landscaping, gated entrance, and building maintenance. GREAT LOCATION Centrally located in Riverview this townhome is close to fine dining, shopping, entertainment, recreation, Interstate 75, US 301 only 15 minutes from downtown Tampa and much more.

14. 2021-09-28
    listed $279,000 Active 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    This beautiful townhome features a well-designed layout that highlights the home's spacious feel and modern features. The first floor is perfect for entertaining family and friends with a beautiful open-layout connecting the dining area, kitchen, and huge living room with sliding glass doors leading to an enormous patio. The kitchen features upgraded stainless steel appliances, a large granite island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, plenty of counters and cabinet space, plus a walk-in pantry tucked underneath the stairs. There is even a considerable sized half bathroom downstairs making it easy and convenient for having company. Upstairs there is a bright, large loft you can use as an office or an additional living room! There is a large master bedroom with a walk-in closet, an additional closet for extra storage, double vanity, and walk-in shower. Two Jack and Jill bedrooms upstairs share a second bathroom making it accommodating for all. This corner townhome features an oversized driveway with plenty of parking room. LOW HOA fees includes water, landscaping, gated entrance, and building maintenance. GREAT LOCATION Centrally located in Riverview this townhome is close to fine dining, shopping, entertainment, recreation, Interstate 75, US 301 only 15 minutes from downtown Tampa and much more.

15. 2020-03-24
    soldstatus $202,990 Sold
16. 2019-12-30
    status Pending
17. 2019-12-19
    price $202,990
18. 2019-12-05
    price $204,990
19. 2019-11-01
    price $211,990
20. 2019-09-13
    listed $210,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,076 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,076 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$4,076
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,289
• − Management: −$2,289
• − HOA: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$5,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $23/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Progress Village

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #5091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progress Village, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,651
• Household income: $85,921
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 23% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.42%
• Current HPI: 326.0368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+23.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $317,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-12 Sold (MLS) $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-28 Listed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-24 Sold (MLS) $202,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-19 Price Changed $202,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-05 Price Changed $204,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-01 Price Changed $211,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-13 Listed $210,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+44.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,076 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.