409 W Spruce St

Mahanoy City, PA 17948

$159,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Built 1885 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-128/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-128/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,129 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Mahanoy Area SD (town): math 11% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #494 of 539 in PA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mahanoy Area El Sch (math 13% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,214 of 1,518 statewide, top 80%, 570 students, 100% FRL); Mahanoy Area Jshs (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #419 of 437 statewide, top 96%, 485 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 54% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 169 units permitted in Schuylkill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Schuylkill County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $159k implies a 699% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 11.6% in Mahanoy City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.