16426 Francis Ct

Orland Park, IL 60467

$379,900D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,947 sqft · Built 1997 · Townhouse · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,663/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$630
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$769
• Net cashflow: $271/mo
• Annual: $3,253/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.06%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $366k (3.6% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $366k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in IL, #529 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+.
• Cons Hsd 230 (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #146 of 620 in IL (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $261k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.5% in Orland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.