2741 Adams Ave

Odessa, TX 79762

$199,900C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 245 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,111/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$643
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-279/yr
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.65%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-279/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (2.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sam Houston El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 392 students, 90% FRL); Bowie Middle (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 914 students, 74% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 56% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 6793% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.