7578 East Fork Ln

Clarkrange, TN 38554

$279,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,129/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-746/mo
• Annual: $-8,950/yr
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.42%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-746 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (47.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (59.7% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (59.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#213 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Overton County (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #70 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Overton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Overton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $280k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.0% in Clarkrange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.