7578 East Fork Ln · Clarkrange, TN 38554

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2005 $179/sqft · at area comps Est $375k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RECENTLY UPDATED! Located in a beautiful country setting you will find this 2100 square foot home situated on 5.2 private acres. Spacious living room leads you to a nice sized family room with a stacked stone gas fireplace. Open kitchen with lots of cabinet space and all appliances stay. The master bedroom is oversized with en suite offering a large tub, stand up shower and a huge walk-in closet. This home provides you with 2 more great sized bedrooms, another full bath and an oversized laundry room. Deck at back of home to sit back and watch the abundance of wildlife. Detached 2 car garage with lots of room for storage! 13 month home warranty for peace of mind.

Key facts

• Back deck
• Large walk-in closet
• Tile shower

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN WITH GAS RANGE
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• TILE SHOWER
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Propane; Circuit breaker electrical panel; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Site built; One level
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Gazebo; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows with blinds; Gas fireplace with gas log
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-746 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (47.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (59.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (59.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.0% in Clarkrange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#213 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Overton County (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #70 of 139 in TN (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Overton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Overton County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $280k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,894 (59.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.42%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 20.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,419
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -25.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14914 Peach Stone Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	3mo	$210,000	$117	53
5135 Wolf Branch Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	12mo	$400,000	$238	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $104,775
• Equity at exit: $252,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $345,571
• Equity at exit: $543,784

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38554

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 20.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $639/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $148,151

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $279,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $299,000 Active 593-char remark
18. 2025-11-20
    price $319,000
19. 2020-06-10
    soldstatus $99,500
20. 2020-06-09
    soldstatus $99,500

    Show marketing remark (679 chars)

    RECENTLY UPDATED! Located in a beautiful country setting you will find this 2100 square foot home situated on 5.2 private acres. Spacious living room leads you to a nice sized family room with a stacked stone gas fireplace. Open kitchen with lots of cabinet space and all appliances stay. The master bedroom is oversized with en suite offering a large tub, stand up shower and a huge walk-in closet. This home provides you with 2 more great sized bedrooms, another full bath and an oversized laundry room. Deck at back of home to sit back and watch the abundance of wildlife. Detached 2 car garage with lots of room for storage! 13 month home warranty for peace of mind.

21. 2020-06-09
    soldstatus $99,500

    Show marketing remark (679 chars)

    RECENTLY UPDATED! Located in a beautiful country setting you will find this 2100 square foot home situated on 5.2 private acres. Spacious living room leads you to a nice sized family room with a stacked stone gas fireplace. Open kitchen with lots of cabinet space and all appliances stay. The master bedroom is oversized with en suite offering a large tub, stand up shower and a huge walk-in closet. This home provides you with 2 more great sized bedrooms, another full bath and an oversized laundry room. Deck at back of home to sit back and watch the abundance of wildlife. Detached 2 car garage with lots of room for storage! 13 month home warranty for peace of mind.

22. 2020-03-21
    listed $114,929

    Show marketing remark (679 chars)

    RECENTLY UPDATED! Located in a beautiful country setting you will find this 2100 square foot home situated on 5.2 private acres. Spacious living room leads you to a nice sized family room with a stacked stone gas fireplace. Open kitchen with lots of cabinet space and all appliances stay. The master bedroom is oversized with en suite offering a large tub, stand up shower and a huge walk-in closet. This home provides you with 2 more great sized bedrooms, another full bath and an oversized laundry room. Deck at back of home to sit back and watch the abundance of wildlife. Detached 2 car garage with lots of room for storage! 13 month home warranty for peace of mind.

23. 2020-03-21
    listed $114,929

    Show marketing remark (679 chars)

    RECENTLY UPDATED! Located in a beautiful country setting you will find this 2100 square foot home situated on 5.2 private acres. Spacious living room leads you to a nice sized family room with a stacked stone gas fireplace. Open kitchen with lots of cabinet space and all appliances stay. The master bedroom is oversized with en suite offering a large tub, stand up shower and a huge walk-in closet. This home provides you with 2 more great sized bedrooms, another full bath and an oversized laundry room. Deck at back of home to sit back and watch the abundance of wildlife. Detached 2 car garage with lots of room for storage! 13 month home warranty for peace of mind.

24. 2019-07-30
    listed $99,929
25. 2013-08-30
    listed $130,000
26. 2011-03-21
    listed $150,000
27. 2010-03-01
    listed $150,000
28. 2005-09-26
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $639 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,349/yr (+$112/mo · 211.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$639
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,084
• − Management: −$1,084
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$14,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,475
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Overton County
• NCES district ID: 4703330
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,479
• Composite: 23.47/100
• National rank: #7879
• State rank: #70 of 139 in TN

Livability — Clarkrange

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #16349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,541
• Population (ZIP): 751

Population outlook (Overton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,942 people
• By 2030: 21,633 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 20,812 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 19,770 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 17,125 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 13,695 · -37.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Overton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.2) · D 17.4% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -64.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.2 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.55%
• Current HPI: 366.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+1019.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $279,900 UCMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $299,000 UCMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $319,000 UCMLS
• 2020-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $99,500 Public Records
• 2020-06-09 Sold (MLS) $99,500 UCMLS
• 2020-06-09 Sold (MLS) $99,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-03-21 Listed $114,929 UCMLS
• 2020-03-21 Listed $114,929 Knoxville MLS
• 2019-07-30 Listed $99,929 Knoxville MLS
• 2013-08-30 Listed $130,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2011-03-21 Listed $150,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2010-03-01 Listed $150,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2005-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $639 · +32.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.