70626 Sunny Sands

Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$275,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,658/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-472/mo
• Annual: $-5,661/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.35%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (30.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (39.7% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 750 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $229k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.