Jillian B Plan

Dothan, AL 36303

$194,471F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 719 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,032
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-296/mo
• Annual: $-3,553/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $55,093

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (30.8% below list).
• It's been on market 719 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kelly Springs Elementary School (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #414 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 533 students, 80% FRL); Girard Intermediate School (math 2% / reading 20%, grade F, #560 of 627 statewide, top 90%, 321 students, 95% FRL); Dothan High School (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #163 of 305 statewide, top 54%, 1,454 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 59% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 719 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.