Jillian B Plan · Dothan, AL 36303

$194,471

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 766 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Appreciate all the comforts of a home built just for you at just the right size. Come together in the lively center of this home featuring a kitchen open to the dining and living rooms. Then enjoy privacy in the master suite separate from the other 2 bedrooms. Everything you want is here in this perfect gem.

Key facts

• Master suite privacy
• Open kitchen layout
• Listed 765 days

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN LAYOUT
• MASTER SUITE PRIVACY

🏗️ New construction. The $194,471 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $194,624.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kelly Springs Elementary School (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #414 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 533 students, 80% FRL); Girard Intermediate School (math 2% / reading 20%, grade F, #560 of 627 statewide, top 90%, 321 students, 95% FRL); Dothan High School (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #163 of 305 statewide, top 54%, 1,454 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 59% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 356 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 766 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $147,355 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 766 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,624
• List price: $194,471
• Delta: -0.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Heyward Dr	0.97mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+0%)	5mo	$235,000	$161	60
2601 Redmond Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+19%)	6mo	$239,900	$139	55
106 Candle Brook Dr	1.08mi	3/2.5	1,409 (-3%)	7mo	$165,000	$117	52
164 Candlebrook Dr	0.92mi	3/2.5	1,376 (-5%)	6mo	$169,000	$123	50
121 Heyward Dr	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-8%)	4mo	$190,000	$142	49
3202 Mike Dr	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-7%)	7mo	$154,000	$114	47
1206 Beuna Vista Dr	1.10mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+10%)	3mo	$222,000	$139	46
107 Woodcliff Rd	0.99mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-16%)	3mo	$190,000	$156	38
1801 Westover Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,671 (+15%)	3mo	$195,000	$117	38
2508 Scott Rd	1.08mi	3/1.0	1,240 (-14%)	3mo	$157,000	$127	34
2504 Linda Ln E	0.99mi	3/1.0	1,227 (-15%)	3mo	$86,500	$70	34
803 Selkirk Dr	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+20%)	8mo	$150,783	$87	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-43,037
• Equity at exit: $29,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-52,221
• Equity at exit: $16,828

Cash invested: $54,495 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.9 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $215,917 ($135/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36303

• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,021
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$243 /mo · $2,919/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $168,448

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-114	+0% $-181	+5% $-248	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-239	+0% $-181	+5% $-123	+10% $-64
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-131	base $-181	+0.5pp $-231	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,656
• Closing costs: $5,839
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Deer Run Trl Dothan, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1568	$1,300	$0.83	2d	1	0.64mi
3309 Cathy Lou Rd Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,550	$1.09	2d	1	0.84mi
2151 Westgate Pkwy Dothan, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1324	$1,309	$0.99	2d	6	0.86mi
153 Heyward Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1456	$3,800	$2.61	139d	1	0.94mi
2200 Fernway Ct Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,650	$1.32	6d	1	0.97mi
1304 Cornell Ave Dothan, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	849	$1,075	$1.27	5d	8	1.14mi
2003 Rock Spring Rd Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,500	$1.26	6d	1	1.23mi
1114 Cornell Ave Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1757	$1,700	$0.97	139d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $194,471 Active 766 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $194,471 Active 765 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $194,471 Active 764 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $194,471 Active 763 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $194,471 Active 762 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $194,471 Active 760 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $194,471 Active 759 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $194,471 Active 758 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $194,471 Active 757 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $194,471 Active 756 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $194,471 Active 755 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $194,471 Active 754 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $194,471 Active 753 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $194,471 Active 747 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $194,471 Active 746 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $194,471 Active 745 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $194,471 Active 744 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $194,471 Active 741 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $194,471 Active 740 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $194,471 Active 739 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $194,471 Active 738 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $194,471 Active 737 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $194,471 Active 736 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $194,471 Active 735 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $194,471 Active 734 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $194,471 Active 733 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $194,471 Active 732 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $194,471 Active 731 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $194,471 Active 730 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $194,471 Active 729 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $194,471 Active 728 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $194,471 Active 727 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $194,471 Active 726 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $194,471 Active 725 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $194,471 Active 724 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $194,471 Active 723 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $194,471 Active 722 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $194,471 Active 721 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $194,471 Active 720 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $194,471 Active 719 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $194,471 Active 718 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $194,471 Active 717 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $194,471 Active 716 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $194,471 Active 715 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $194,471 Active 714 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $194,471 Active 711 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    price $194,471 Active 709 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $201,337 Active 709 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $201,337 Active 707 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $201,337 Active 705 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,902
• − Property taxes: −$2,919
• − Insurance: −$973
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$5,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $-826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kelly Springs Elementary School F AL #414/627 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Girard Intermediate School F AL #560/627 Nat'l #38,478/41,679 High Carver 9th Grade Academy

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• County: Houston County · 110,280 people
• City population: 47,783
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 30,173
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 41% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.35%
• Current HPI: 182.6482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $198,440 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $192,781 Zillow
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $190,101 Zillow
• 2024-08-19 Listed $201,122 Zillow