767 Manitou Rd

Hilton, NY 14468

$189,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $8/mo
• Annual: $101/yr
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($101/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (2.2% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $186k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#324 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hilton Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #219 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Village Elementary School (math 39% / reading 54%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 971 students, 29% FRL); Merton Williams Middle School (math 35% / reading 59%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 641 students, 26% FRL); Hilton High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 1,366 students, 23% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $127k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Hilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.