767 Manitou Rd · Hilton, NY 14468

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into 767 Manitou Rd, a well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home offering a functional layout with a first-floor primary bedroom and convenient first-floor laundry. The main living areas feature hardwood flooring and natural light, while the kitchen includes wood cabinetry, gas stove/oven, refrigerator, and microwave with adjacent dining space and vaulted ceiling. Upstairs provides additional bedrooms and a full bath. Recent updates include fresh interior paint, a furnace approximately 4 years old, and a water heater installed in 2017. Additional features include a 1.5-car garage and washer/dryer included. Practical layout with a mix of hardwood, tile, and carpeted flooring throughout,

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($101/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Hilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#324 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hilton Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #219 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Village Elementary School (math 39% / reading 54%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 971 students, 29% FRL); Merton Williams Middle School (math 35% / reading 59%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 641 students, 26% FRL); Hilton High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 1,366 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $127k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $185,767 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,120
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,060
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14468

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,610/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $62	+0% $8	+5% $-45	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-65	+0% $8	+5% $82	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $57	base $8	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 2019-05-28
   soldstatus $127,000
4. 2017-12-06
   soldstatus $33,000
5. 2006-04-26
   soldstatus $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,610 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,610 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$4,610
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$719
• After-tax cash flow: $820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hilton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614460
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $68,270
• Composite: 52.77/100
• National rank: #1544
• State rank: #219 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hilton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #5354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 18,526
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,526
• Household income: $98,693
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.39%
• Current HPI: 256.2599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+118.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $189,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,610 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.