38358 Poplar Dr

Willoughby, OH 44094

$187,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 926 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,484/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,251/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $52,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#249 in OH, #3,972 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Willoughby-Eastlake City (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #434 of 656 in OH (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grant Elementary School (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,021 of 1,584 statewide, top 64%, 550 students, 46% FRL); Eastlake Middle School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #511 of 654 statewide, top 79%, 324 students, 48% FRL); South High School (math 25% / reading 63%, grade F, #489 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 1,093 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 448 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.8% in Willoughby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.