38358 Poplar Dr · Willoughby, OH 44094

$187,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 926 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1930 10,798 sqft lot $202/sqft · 13% below area Est $214k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

Key facts

• New carpet
• New flooring
• New washer and dryer

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• OPENED-UP LAYOUT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CARPET
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces); Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story home; Above-grade finished area approximately 926; Lot around 0.2479 acres
• Construction: Built (year per public records); Aluminum and vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Full basement; Two fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.8% in Willoughby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#249 in OH, #3,972 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Willoughby-Eastlake City (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #434 of 656 in OH (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grant Elementary School (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,021 of 1,584 statewide, top 64%, 550 students, 46% FRL); Eastlake Middle School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #511 of 654 statewide, top 79%, 324 students, 48% FRL); South High School (math 25% / reading 63%, grade F, #489 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 1,093 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 448 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,353 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,283
• List price: $187,000
• Delta: -12.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38355 Laura Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-2%)	1mo	$196,000	$215	80
38272 Laura Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+7%)	9mo	$178,000	$180	64
38136 Parkway Blvd	0.24mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,050 (+13%)	1mo	$315,000	$300	59
38358 Parkway Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,016 (+10%)	19mo	$239,900	$236	55
38359 Parkway Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,025 (+11%)	21mo	$216,300	$211	51
466 Waterbury Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	988 (+7%)	1mo	$303,000	$307	49
3047 Nantucket Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,040 (+12%)	13mo	$338,000	$325	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,409
• Equity at exit: $27,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-32,956
• Equity at exit: $16,168

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44094

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,612/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $168,578

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-51	+0% $-104	+5% $-157	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-163	+0% $-104	+5% $-46	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-57	base $-104	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38360 Tamarac Blvd Willoughby, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,835	$1.93	3d	29	1.24mi
38280 North Ln Unit H-206 Willoughby, OH	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	1.50mi
38280 North Ln Unit J-208 Willoughby, OH	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $187,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $187,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $200,000 Active 947-char remark
16. 2024-02-26
    soldstatus $135,000
17. 2024-02-23
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

18. 2024-02-05
    status Pending 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

19. 2024-01-25
    historical Contingent 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

20. 2024-01-18
    status Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

21. 2023-12-07
    historical Contingent 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

22. 2023-11-20
    price $139,900 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

23. 2023-10-16
    price $149,900 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

24. 2023-08-16
    listed $159,900 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Charming and well cared for 2 bedroom Cape Cod in sought after Willoughby neighborhood close to Freeways and less than 10 minutes from Downtown Willoughby! Fantastic covered front porch to sit and relax on those nice summer days! Spacious art deco style kitchen with wood cabinets, butcher block style countertops leads to the formal dining rm with built in china cabinet. Large Living rm with fireplace. 2 bedroom up plus the full bathroom. Full basement with partially finished recreation rm with 2nd Fp. Basement was waterproofed and 3 foundation walls were replaced. Huge backyard with concrete patio & 2 Car Garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,612 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,765 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$2,612
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$4,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willoughby-Eastlake City
• NCES district ID: 3904510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,500
• Composite: 42.96/100
• National rank: #3110
• State rank: #434 of 656 in OH

Livability — Willoughby

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #249
• US rank: #3972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willoughby, OH
• County: Lake County · 204,927 people
• City population: 36,873
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 36,873
• Household income: $78,772
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1381.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,022 people
• By 2030: 228,151 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 221,018 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 212,754 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 200,309 · -12.9%
• By 2100: 183,315 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.7 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.28%
• Current HPI: 179.81
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+16.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $187,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $195,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-11 Listed $200,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-23 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-02-05 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2024-01-25 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2024-01-18 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2023-12-07 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $139,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-10-16 Price Changed $149,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-08-16 Listed $159,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,612 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.