19 Holtz Way

West Windsor, NJ 08550

$674,295D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,198 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 462 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,922/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,536
• Tax + insurance: −$1,124
• HOA: −$416
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,034
• Net cashflow: $-1,187/mo
• Annual: $-14,248/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $188,803

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $674k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $502k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $492k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 462 days — a 12% lower offer ($593k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $492k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Windsor-Plainsboro Regional School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #37 of 472 in NJ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 462 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.