19 Holtz Way · West Windsor, NJ 08550

$674,295

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,198 sqft · Townhouse · 462 Days on market

Built 2026 $307/sqft · 16% below area Est $801k · 16% under $416/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for the perfect size home for your active adult life (55+ Active Adults) this beautiful Cloverhill floorplan is perfectly crafted to fit your lifestyle and is waiting for you to make it your own. With nearly 2,200 sq ft plus a full basement waiting to be finished, this home is yours to build to your liking. Complementing the well-designed kitchen is a center island plus plenty of counter space. The casual dining area is adjacent to the kitchen and provides a convenient and intimate setting. The two story foyer and great room provide a beautiful atmosphere. The 2nd floor is equally exciting, with a spacious loft, 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath and a plenty of closet space. The resort type amenities and low maintenance lifestyle including lawn care and snow removal are just a few of the benefits of this great community. Explore everything this exceptional home has to offer and schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• $416 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $674k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $502k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $492k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $492k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Windsor-Plainsboro Regional School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #37 of 472 in NJ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 462 days — a 12% lower offer ($593k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $492,225 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 462 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $800,868
• List price: $674,295
• Delta: -15.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Cooper Ct	0.13mi	3/3.5	2,198 (0%)	1mo	$684,457	$311	89
5 Cherry Ln	0.12mi	3/3.5	2,198 (0%)	2mo	$660,000	$300	89
3 Cherry Ln	0.12mi	3/3.5	2,198 (0%)	2mo	$714,000	$325	89
17 Cooper Ct	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,198 (0%)	7mo	$647,645	$295	89
1 Cooper Ct	0.14mi	3/3.5	2,249 (+2%)	1mo	$732,937	$326	85
2701 American Pl Unit ALBERG	0.39mi	3/2.5	2,315 (+5%)	11mo	$927,466	$401	64
2604 American Pl Unit CAPE DORY	0.42mi	3/2.5	2,347 (+7%)	11mo	$844,990	$360	60
2704 American Pl Unit CAPE DORY	0.54mi	3/2.5	2,347 (+7%)	11mo	$794,328	$338	55
141 Ada Hightower Ave	0.60mi	3/3.5	2,453 (+12%)	4mo	$716,340	$292	46
3302 Jordan Dr Unit CAPE DORY	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,347 (+7%)	20mo	$871,613	$371	43
3305 Jordan Pl Unit BENETEAU	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,410 (+10%)	20mo	$903,379	$375	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-184,556
• Equity at exit: $100,540

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-256,742
• Equity at exit: $58,301

Cash invested: $188,803 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08550

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,536
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$843 /mo · $10,114/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$416
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,034
• Net cashflow: $-1,187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,425

Max offer price $502,487

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-721	-5% $-954	+0% $-1,187	+5% $-1,420	+10% $-1,653
Rent	-10% $-1,576	-5% $-1,382	+0% $-1,187	+5% $-993	+10% $-798
Rate	-1.0pp $-848	-0.5pp $-1,016	base $-1,187	+0.5pp $-1,362	+1.0pp $-1,540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,574
• Closing costs: $20,229
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Cherry Ln West Windsor Township, NJ	3.0	3.5	2304	$4,750	$2.06	44d	1	0.11mi
2601 American Pl Princeton Junction, NJ	3.0	3.5	2266	$5,500	$2.43	11d	1	0.40mi
2906 Justin Dr Princeton Junction, NJ	4.0	3.5	2925	$5,500	$1.88	0d	1	0.47mi
3202 Justin Dr West Windsor, NJ	3.0	3.0	2410	$5,500	$2.28	4d	1	0.55mi
318 Oak Ln Princeton Junction, NJ	3.0	2.0	1747	$3,800	$2.18	14d	1	0.88mi
163 Hickory Corner Rd East Windsor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1701	$4,400	$2.59	14d	1	1.23mi
4 Samarpan Ct Hightstown, NJ	3.0	3.0	2724	$4,650	$1.71	13d	1	1.24mi
105 Samjan Cir Hightstown, NJ	3.0	3.0	2934	$4,500	$1.53	14d	1	1.38mi
24 Wood Mill Dr Unit 24 East Windsor, NJ	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,295	$0.76	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $416 · $4,992/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsnow removal

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $674,295 Active 462 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $674,295 Active 461 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $674,295 Active 460 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $674,295 Active 459 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $674,295 Active 457 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $674,295 Active 454 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $674,295 Active 453 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $674,295 Active 452 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $674,295 Active 451 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $674,295 Active 447 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $674,295 Active 446 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $674,295 Active 445 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $674,295 Active 444 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $674,295 Active 443 DOM
15. 2026-04-12
    price $674,295 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Looking for the perfect size home for your active adult life (55+ Active Adults) this beautiful Cloverhill floorplan is perfectly crafted to fit your lifestyle and is waiting for you to make it your own. With nearly 2,200 sq ft plus a full basement waiting to be finished, this home is yours to build to your liking. Complementing the well-designed kitchen is a center island plus plenty of counter space. The casual dining area is adjacent to the kitchen and provides a convenient and intimate setting. The two story foyer and great room provide a beautiful atmosphere. The 2nd floor is equally exciting, with a spacious loft, 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath and a plenty of closet space. The resort type amenities and low maintenance lifestyle including lawn care and snow removal are just a few of the benefits of this great community. Explore everything this exceptional home has to offer and schedule your appointment today!

16. 2025-08-01
    price $641,995 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Looking for the perfect size home for your active adult life (55+ Active Adults) this beautiful Cloverhill floorplan is perfectly crafted to fit your lifestyle and is waiting for you to make it your own. With nearly 2,200 sq ft plus a full basement waiting to be finished, this home is yours to build to your liking. Complementing the well-designed kitchen is a center island plus plenty of counter space. The casual dining area is adjacent to the kitchen and provides a convenient and intimate setting. The two story foyer and great room provide a beautiful atmosphere. The 2nd floor is equally exciting, with a spacious loft, 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath and a plenty of closet space. The resort type amenities and low maintenance lifestyle including lawn care and snow removal are just a few of the benefits of this great community. Explore everything this exceptional home has to offer and schedule your appointment today!

17. 2025-07-24
    price $680,995 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Looking for the perfect size home for your active adult life (55+ Active Adults) this beautiful Cloverhill floorplan is perfectly crafted to fit your lifestyle and is waiting for you to make it your own. With nearly 2,200 sq ft plus a full basement waiting to be finished, this home is yours to build to your liking. Complementing the well-designed kitchen is a center island plus plenty of counter space. The casual dining area is adjacent to the kitchen and provides a convenient and intimate setting. The two story foyer and great room provide a beautiful atmosphere. The 2nd floor is equally exciting, with a spacious loft, 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath and a plenty of closet space. The resort type amenities and low maintenance lifestyle including lawn care and snow removal are just a few of the benefits of this great community. Explore everything this exceptional home has to offer and schedule your appointment today!

18. 2025-06-01
    price $646,995 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Looking for the perfect size home for your active adult life (55+ Active Adults) this beautiful Cloverhill floorplan is perfectly crafted to fit your lifestyle and is waiting for you to make it your own. With nearly 2,200 sq ft plus a full basement waiting to be finished, this home is yours to build to your liking. Complementing the well-designed kitchen is a center island plus plenty of counter space. The casual dining area is adjacent to the kitchen and provides a convenient and intimate setting. The two story foyer and great room provide a beautiful atmosphere. The 2nd floor is equally exciting, with a spacious loft, 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath and a plenty of closet space. The resort type amenities and low maintenance lifestyle including lawn care and snow removal are just a few of the benefits of this great community. Explore everything this exceptional home has to offer and schedule your appointment today!

19. 2025-03-13
    listed $699,995 Active 932-char remark

    Show marketing remark (932 chars)

    Looking for the perfect size home for your active adult life (55+ Active Adults) this beautiful Cloverhill floorplan is perfectly crafted to fit your lifestyle and is waiting for you to make it your own. With nearly 2,200 sq ft plus a full basement waiting to be finished, this home is yours to build to your liking. Complementing the well-designed kitchen is a center island plus plenty of counter space. The casual dining area is adjacent to the kitchen and provides a convenient and intimate setting. The two story foyer and great room provide a beautiful atmosphere. The 2nd floor is equally exciting, with a spacious loft, 2 additional bedrooms, a full bath and a plenty of closet space. The resort type amenities and low maintenance lifestyle including lawn care and snow removal are just a few of the benefits of this great community. Explore everything this exceptional home has to offer and schedule your appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,771
• − Property taxes: −$10,114
• − Insurance: −$3,371
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,725
• − Management: −$4,725
• − HOA: −$4,992
• − Depreciation: −$19,616
• Taxable loss: −$26,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,300
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Windsor-Plainsboro Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3417700
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $115,332
• Composite: 60.59/100
• National rank: #834
• State rank: #37 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Windsor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,876

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 53% White 37% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 45% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Other Indo-European 19% Other Asian/Pacific 14% Chinese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.06%
• Current HPI: 287.8773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $674,295 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $641,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $680,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $646,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $699,995 BRIGHT MLS