3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,264 sqft ·
Built 1951
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 118 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,413/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$965
Tax + insurance
−$257
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$297
Net cashflow
$-106/mo
Annual
$-1,274/yr
Cap rate
5.60%
Cash-on-cash
-2.47%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$51,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (10.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (23.2% below list).
It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $141k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Grasp Academy (math 18% / reading 14%, grade F, #2,130 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 271 students, 52% FRL); Jean Ribault Middle School (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 679 students, 78% FRL); Edward H. White High School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,538 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 49% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $25k; list at $184k implies a 636% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1S5RW3B9C5KXES
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29