1921 Blue Ridge Dr

Millersville, PA 17603

$225,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-264/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-264/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (13.6% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $194k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#101 in PA, #728 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Penn Manor SD (suburban): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #80 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eshleman El Sch (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #249 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 341 students, 45% FRL); Manor Middle School (math 39% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 492 students, 54% FRL); Penn Manor Hs (math 82% / reading 30%, grade C, #90 of 437 statewide, top 21%, 1,783 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 27% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 296 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Millersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.