1921 Blue Ridge Dr · Millersville, PA 17603

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1956 10,019 sqft lot Est $260k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Offer has been received. Offer deadline is Tuesday, May 26th at noon. Cute and cozy single on a nice lot with a beautiful back yard. Carport is currently being used as a screened-in porch. Eat-in kitchen with lots of potential. This home needs some sprucing up but it's a Penn Manor single on a great lot for a great price!

Key facts

• Back yard
• Screened-in porch
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• BACK YARD
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached carport (1 space total for garage/parking)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers; Natural gas available
• Home design: Detached property; Good condition; Finished living area reported by assessor
• Construction: Frame construction with metal siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built year reported by assessor
• Exterior features: Front yard; Rear yard; Patio(s); Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Traditional floor plan; Combination kitchen and dining area; Dry wall walls and ceilings; Entry-level bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main floor; Natural gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-264/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Millersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#101 in PA, #728 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Penn Manor SD (suburban): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #80 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eshleman El Sch (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #249 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 341 students, 45% FRL); Manor Middle School (math 39% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 492 students, 54% FRL); Penn Manor Hs (math 82% / reading 30%, grade C, #90 of 437 statewide, top 21%, 1,783 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 27% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 296 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,465 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,925
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1931 Wabank Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0	960 (+4%)	3mo	$217,000	$226	87
60 Fresh Meadow Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+14%)	7mo	$304,900	$290	64
112 Village Green Ln	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-14%)	23mo	$225,000	$281	45
325 Barbara St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (+9%)	19mo	$319,000	$316	40
228 Herr Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+8%)	21mo	$269,000	$269	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-42,659
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-57,659
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17603

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,945 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,415/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $221,110

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $42	+0% $-22	+5% $-86	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-99	+0% $-22	+5% $55	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $35	base $-22	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Country View Ln Millersville, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,838	$1.89	15d	6	0.85mi
1633A Judie Ln Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,698	$2.00	15d	13	0.85mi
1415 Spencer Ave Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1181	$3,720	$3.15	15d	1	1.09mi
26 Blue Rock Rd Millersville, PA	2.0	1.5	1046	$1,750	$1.67	45d	1	1.14mi
480 Euclid Ave Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	830	$1,695	$2.04	45d	1	1.32mi
99 Dickinson Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	981	$1,634	$1.67	15d	1	1.34mi
124 Pickwick Pl Millersville, PA	3.0	1.5	796	$1,850	$2.32	15d	1	1.41mi
1127 Wabank St Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,650	$2.17	25d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,415 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,485 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 2.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,415
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,867
• − Management: −$1,867
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Manor SD
• NCES district ID: 4218630
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,275
• Composite: 50.67/100
• National rank: #1826
• State rank: #80 of 539 in PA

Livability — Millersville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #728

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millersville, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 11,753
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 67,571
• Household income: $77,084
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2557.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -508.78%
• Current HPI: 289.3324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,415 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.