3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,189 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,854/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,117
Tax + insurance
−$145
HOA
−$94
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$389
Net cashflow
$108/mo
Annual
$1,299/yr
Cap rate
6.90%
Cash-on-cash
2.18%
DSCR
1.10
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$59,640
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $213k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (13.0% below list).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $185k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in Providence Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1SBMSR1CRDCZXN
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29