12124 Steeplechase Dr · Providence Village, TX 76227

$212,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,189 sqft · Land · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 4,400 sqft lot $94/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Baja floorplan at Lennar's Foree Ranch, where modern living meets inspired design! This stunning two-story home is built for connection, starting with a spacious kitchen boasting a wraparound countertop that seamlessly flows into the family room—perfect for hosting lively gatherings or enjoying cozy nights in. Step into the backyard, an effortless extension of your entertaining space, ideal for weekend barbecues or quiet relaxation. Upstairs, all three bedrooms await, including the luxurious owner’s suite with its own en-suite bath and walk-in closet, a true retreat from the everyday.

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features include energy-efficient appliances, doors, insulation, rain/freeze sensors, thermostat, and windows
• Financial info: Listing accepted financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual HOA fee; HOA provides full use of facilities; HOA managed by Legacy SW Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Covered parking (1 covered space); Garage faces front; Garage approx. 20' wide x 18' long
• Security: Prewired for security systems
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Curbs; Sidewalk
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Residential property; Not attached to another property; Prewired security
• Construction: 2026 construction; Siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Gutters; Wood fencing; Sprinkler system; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Plumbed for gas in kitchen; Vented exhaust fan; Kitchen island; Granite or natural stone counters; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom located on upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closets; 5 total rooms; One living area; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Plumbed for gas (kitchen) — utility hookups indicated

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $213k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in Providence Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $185,400 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-33,096
• Equity at exit: $31,759

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,113
• Equity at exit: $18,416

Cash invested: $59,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,117
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,717

Max offer price $212,999

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,250
• Closing costs: $6,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12112 Steeplechase Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1204	$1,690	$1.40	24d	1	0.02mi
12156 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,595	$1.34	43d	1	0.12mi
12132 Thoroughbred Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1361	$1,835	$1.35	43d	1	0.14mi
12176 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,695	$1.25	43d	1	0.15mi
4049 Criollo Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	43d	1	0.15mi
12161 Morgan Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,695	$1.25	43d	1	0.15mi
3160 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,795	$1.27	43d	1	0.19mi
4217 Belmont Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1203	$1,695	$1.41	7d	1	0.21mi
3133 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,850	$1.32	24d	1	0.22mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	7d	1	0.23mi
3141 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1402	$1,945	$1.39	43d	1	0.23mi
12145 Falabella Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1202	$1,695	$1.41	43d	1	0.24mi
3117 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,895	$1.35	7d	1	0.24mi
3040 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	18d	1	0.28mi
3112 Tokara St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,045	$1.45	43d	1	0.29mi
3009 Tokara St Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,900	$1.35	43d	1	0.40mi
10325 Baron Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,250	$1.69	43d	1	0.57mi
13109 Don Fisher Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,195	$1.55	43d	1	0.62mi
13136 Hideaway Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,000	$1.41	18d	1	0.81mi
1821 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,825	$1.23	24d	1	0.91mi
13173 Enclave Pkwy Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$2,100	$1.41	11d	1	1.02mi
11616 Roaring Fork Trl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	11d	1	1.04mi
11136 Canyon Mine Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,099	$1.40	19d	1	1.11mi
1221 Bristol Ln Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,950	$1.50	43d	1	1.17mi
10200 Cedar Lake Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	1493	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	1.20mi
9824 Birch Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,820	$1.46	43d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $94 · $1,128/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 619-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $212,999 Active 619-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,898 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,218/yr (+$268/mo · 473.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,931
• − Property taxes: −$680
• − Insurance: −$1,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,780
• − Management: −$1,780
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$6,196
• Taxable loss: −$2,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$555
• After-tax cash flow: $1,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Providence Village

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #10856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence Village, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $212,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $680 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.