49 William St

Tonawanda, NY 14150

$849,900B-

49 bd · None ba · 13,748 sqft · Built 1935 · MultiFamily · Pending · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,769/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$743
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,261
• Net cashflow: $3,308/mo
• Annual: $39,695/yr
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $237,972

Investor read

• This is a 2×1bd/1.0ba + 3×2bd/1.0ba + 2×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive. Per door: $473/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $850k).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $748k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $850k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $10,769/mo this rent would consume 181% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.