49 William St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$849,900

49 bd · None ba · 13,748 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1935 9,660 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 7 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Welcome to 49 William Street! A well-known, all-brick landmark situated on the corner of William Street and Fletcher Street, rich with history in the City of Tonawanda. This impressive 13,000-square-foot building is a rare 7-unit property, featuring some of the most desirable apartments in the area. Nearly all units have been thoughtfully renovated, offering exceptional rental appeal and long-term tenant satisfaction. The property includes two 1-bedroom units, three 2-bedroom units, and two 3-bedroom units. One of the 3-bedroom apartments spans three floors of living space and features two full bathrooms, in-unit laundry, and ample rear parking with an additional detached garage. The buildi

Key facts

• Extensive upgrades
• All brick landmark
• 7 unit property

Tags

• ALL BRICK LANDMARK
• 7 UNIT PROPERTY
• THOUGHTFULLY RENOVATED UNITS
• EXTENSIVE UPGRADES
• NEW ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• UPDATED PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×1bd/1.0ba + 3×2bd/1.0ba + 2×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive. Per door: $473/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $850k).
• Recommended offer: $748k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,769/mo this rent would consume 181% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1427% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $850k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $747,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $114,875
• Equity at exit: $126,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $557,213
• Equity at exit: $73,484

Cash invested: $237,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 51.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,662/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,261
• Net cashflow: $3,308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,582

Max offer price $849,900

Occupancy floor 64%

7-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,762
▸ 3× units	2	1	$4,371
▸ 2× units	3	1	$3,638
Total (7 units)			$10,769

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,475
• Closing costs: $25,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   price $849,900
3. 2026-01-19
   price $899,900
4. 2025-10-21
   listed $949,900 Active
5. 2022-11-01
   soldstatus $300,000
6. 1998-01-06
   soldstatus $122,000
7. 1995-03-10
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,662 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,512 · $793/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,851/yr (+$404/mo · 104.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $129,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,608
• − Property taxes: −$4,662
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,338
• − Management: −$10,338
• − Depreciation: −$24,724
• Taxable income: $27,308
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,554
• After-tax cash flow: $33,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+899.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $849,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $899,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $949,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 1998-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,662 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.