345 Bartley Rd

Mattituck, NY 11952

$1,200,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,896/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax + insurance: −$1,206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,438
• Net cashflow: $12,959/mo
• Annual: $155,506/yr
• Cap rate: 19.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.28%
• DSCR: 3.06
• 1% rule: 2.16%
• Cash to close: $336,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($156k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $1.20M).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.18M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $342k; list at $1.20M implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.