345 Bartley Rd · Mattituck, NY 11952

$1,200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1980 0.41 ac lot Est $1762k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a secluded dead-end gravel road in the heart of the North Fork, this beautifully renovated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort, craftsmanship, and East End charm. Interior updates, including the kitchen, appliances, plumbing, and electrical, were completed approximately 3 years ago, while the roof, deck, and fully equipped outdoor kitchen were added approximately 2 years ago. Radiant-heated floors run throughout the home, complemented by a handcrafted, temperature-controlled wine cellar and plumbing/electrical already in place for a future second-floor bathroom. Outside, enjoy partial water views, a premium outdoor kitchen with high-end appli

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Propane available; Public trash collection; Water connected; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled; Two levels
• Construction: Frame and shake siding construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction with shake siding; Shed(s); Not waterfront; Full attic (pull stairs, unfinished); Basement with Bilco doors, full, unfinished, walk-out access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop (electric); Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Radiant heat
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Chef's kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Primary bathroom; Master suite on main level; Quartz/Quartzite countertops; Whole-house entertainment system; Built-in sound system and speakers; Storage; Walk-in closets; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Washer and dryer included; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($156k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.18M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $342k; list at $1.20M implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $1,182,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.28%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,761,600
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 Ole Jule Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,200 (-8%)	8mo	$940,000	$427	60
4235 Camp Mineola Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,072 (-14%)	8mo	$1,580,000	$763	53
1125 Ole Jule Ln	0.62mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,500 (+4%)	5mo	$1,835,000	$734	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $630,808
• Equity at exit: $178,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $1,611,679
• Equity at exit: $103,754

Cash invested: $336,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11952

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax from tax record: −$706 /mo · $8,468/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,438
• Net cashflow: $12,959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,492

Max offer price $1,200,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13,638	-5% $13,299	+0% $12,959	+5% $12,619	+10% $12,280
Rent	-10% $10,913	-5% $11,936	+0% $12,959	+5% $13,982	+10% $15,005
Rate	-1.0pp $13,563	-0.5pp $13,264	base $12,959	+0.5pp $12,648	+1.0pp $12,332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $300,000
• Closing costs: $36,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 Park Ave Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.0	1900	$44,000	$23.16	25d	1	0.93mi
435 Luptons Point Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2700	$6,000	$2.22	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,200,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,200,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    statusdays on market $1,200,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,200,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $1,200,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,468 · $706/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,374 · $1,198/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,906/yr (+$492/mo · 69.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $310,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,219
• − Property taxes: −$8,468
• − Insurance: −$6,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,860
• − Management: −$24,860
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable income: $144,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$34,663
• After-tax cash flow: $120,843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattituck

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #8015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mattituck, NY
• City population: 4,749
• Population (ZIP): 4,749

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.04%
• Current HPI: 453.8895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+798.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $1,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $342,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $133,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,468 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.