18 Kencrest Cir

Gates, NY 14606

$199,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$699
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-287/mo
• Annual: $-3,439/yr
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.14%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.5% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $149k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#582 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gates-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #491 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walt Disney School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 411 students, 54% FRL); Gates-Chili Middle School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #504 of 729 statewide, top 70%, 854 students, 58% FRL); Gates-Chili High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,132 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 31% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $200k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 5.9% in Gates — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.