1097 County Road 30

Afton, NY 13730

$295,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,578 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-518/mo
• Annual: $-6,213/yr
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.52%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-518 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Afton Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #690 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Afton Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 212 students, 50% FRL); Afton Junior/Senior High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 265 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $295k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.