1097 County Road 30 · Afton, NY 13730

$295,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,578 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1880 $114/sqft · 18% below area Est $376k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right into this charming and spacious farmhouse set on 3.28 acres with sweeping country views. This well-maintained home offers the perfect blend of classic character and modern updates, all in a peaceful, private setting. Relax and unwind on the inviting front porch—an ideal spot for morning coffee or evening sunsets. Inside, you’ll find 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, this home offers an expansive floor plan with endless possibilities. This home also features a fully equipped in-law suite with its own kitchen, bathroom, and private entrance—perfect for extended family, guests, or potential rental income. With plenty of outdoor space for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the views, this property offers the best of country living. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile and inviting property—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• In-law suite
• Front porch
• Private entrance

Tags

• 3.28 ACRES
• COUNTRY VIEWS
• FRONT PORCH
• IN-LAW SUITE
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-518 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Afton Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #690 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Afton Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 212 students, 50% FRL); Afton Junior/Senior High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 265 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $295k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,799 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.52%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,511
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -21.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $127,742
• Equity at exit: $265,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $402,209
• Equity at exit: $573,120

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13730

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$402 /mo · $4,830/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $203,544

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-351	-5% $-434	+0% $-518	+5% $-601	+10% $-685
Rent	-10% $-673	-5% $-595	+0% $-518	+5% $-440	+10% $-362
Rate	-1.0pp $-369	-0.5pp $-443	base $-518	+0.5pp $-594	+1.0pp $-672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Move right into this charming and spacious farmhouse set on 3.28 acres with sweeping country views. This well-maintained home offers the perfect blend of classic character and modern updates, all in a peaceful, private setting. Relax and unwind on the inviting front porch—an ideal spot for morning coffee or evening sunsets. Inside, you’ll find 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, this home offers an expansive floor plan with endless possibilities. This home also features a fully equipped in-law suite with its own kitchen, bathroom, and private entrance—perfect for extended family, guests, or potential rental income. With plenty of outdoor space for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the views, this property offers the best of country living. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile and inviting property—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-02
   listed $295,000 Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Move right into this charming and spacious farmhouse set on 3.28 acres with sweeping country views. This well-maintained home offers the perfect blend of classic character and modern updates, all in a peaceful, private setting. Relax and unwind on the inviting front porch—an ideal spot for morning coffee or evening sunsets. Inside, you’ll find 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, this home offers an expansive floor plan with endless possibilities. This home also features a fully equipped in-law suite with its own kitchen, bathroom, and private entrance—perfect for extended family, guests, or potential rental income. With plenty of outdoor space for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the views, this property offers the best of country living. Don’t miss your chance to own this versatile and inviting property—schedule your showing today!

3. 2016-12-30
   soldstatus $105,000
4. 2016-12-22
   soldstatus $105,000 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Move in ready large farmhouse with many updates! On 3 acres with beautiful views. Open floor plan for the kitchen, dining room & family room. In-law suite with its own kitchen, bath & entrance (possible extra income).

5. 2016-12-22
   soldstatus $105,000

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Move in ready large farmhouse with many updates! On 3 acres with beautiful views. Open floor plan for the kitchen, dining room & family room. In-law suite with its own kitchen, bath & entrance (possible extra income).

6. 2015-09-03
   listed $110,000
7. 2015-09-01
   listed $110,000 230-char remark

   Show marketing remark (230 chars)

   Move in ready large farmhouse with many updates! On 3 acres with beautiful views. Open floor plan for the kitchen, dining room & family room. In-law suite with its own kitchen, bath & entrance (possible extra income).

8. 2013-07-10
   listed $149,900
9. 2007-02-08
   soldstatus $106,000
10. 2006-10-12
    listed $120,000
11. 2006-08-25
    historical
12. 2005-11-22
    listed $144,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,830 · $402/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,908 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,830
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$11,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,778
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Afton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602400
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,188
• Composite: 33.01/100
• National rank: #10669
• State rank: #690 of 755 in NY

Livability — Afton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #16945

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,763
• Population (ZIP): 2,763

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.25%
• Current HPI: 325.5182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+104.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — GBAOR
• 2026-04-02 Listed $295,000 GBAOR
• 2016-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-22 Sold (MLS) $105,000 GBAOR
• 2016-12-22 Sold (MLS) $105,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-09-03 Listed $110,000 GBAOR
• 2015-09-01 Listed $110,000 UNYREIS
• 2013-07-10 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2007-02-08 Sold (MLS) $106,000 UNYREIS
• 2006-10-12 Listed $120,000 UNYREIS
• 2006-08-25 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2005-11-22 Listed $144,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,830 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.