1025 S Central Ave

Lakeland, FL 33815

$229,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,559/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-311/mo
• Annual: $-3,735/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $64,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (32.1% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $230k implies a 520% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,559/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.